Aintree 2012 - Thursday

In my book this is one of the the trappiest meetings of the whole year...

Can those Festival winners confirm the form a few weeks on or will the Festival flops come good over this very different course?

This year there's been an elongated break since Cheltenham (four weeks instead of the usual three) and a drying day today has seen the going changed to good to soft on the Mildmay course. Plenty to ponder...

In the opener Big Buck's goes for an incredible 17th win on the trot and will be long odds-on. The wheels will come off one day but I've run out of money with which to oppose the great horse...

The juvenile hurdle sees five principals from the Triumph Hurdle re-oppse - winner Countrywide Flame, third Grumeti, fourth Dodging Bullets, sixth Sadler's Risk and Pearl Swan who fell at the last when a staying-on seventh. It looks a jolly close call with one school of thought being that ex-Flat runner Grumeti will appreciate this track and the cut underfoot. You pays your money and takes your choice but I intend watch from the sidelines.

The feature is the Betfred Bowl at 3.05. Likely favourite Riverside Theatre, part-owend by actor Jimmy Nesbitt, is worth taking on as he has never won over further than two miles five and this is run over three miles one. Course and distance winner Burton Port has had two hard enough races since returning from injury and may 'bounce' after his commendable fourth in the Gold Cup. Medermit and Hunt Ball are two more who haven't won over three miles while Diamond Harry has been a big disappointment this term but would have every chance if at his best. What A Friend is a talented if quirky customer and comes to this fresher than most having fallen at the second in the Gold Cup but he prefers better ground, a comment that also applies to Nacarat. Still, I've a soft spot for Tom George's grey who did this blog a favour when winning this race last year - at 12/1 in the odd place, 11/1 with Coral, he rates a decent each-way wager.

Only five in the novices' chase at 4.50 but I'd be cautious about backing Al Ferof at a short price. On ratings Ruby's mount has eight and nine pounds in hand over Cristal Bonus and Menorah respectively but the manner in which he missed out a fence in the Arkle was disconcerting. Added to that, Venetia Williams saddles Pepite Rose who jumps well, has won four on the bounce and also claims the seven pounds mares' allowance - an intriguing contest.