Friday, November 12, 2010

Paddy Power Gold Cup day 2010

Twenty are set to go post in a competitive-looking renewal of tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup (Rory Boy declared doubtful this evening), a race that throws up some strong statistical trends. Five favourites have won in the past ten years while the winner has come from the top three in the market on seven occasions; it's worth noting that eight of the last ten winners had won at Cheltenham previously and eight out of ten had also won over the distance of two and a half miles. In addition in the past decade five winners were aged seven and three aged six. Market leader Long Run is a precocious talent and according to David Pipe, trainer of second favourite Great Endeavour, a certainty. Long Run has plenty of weight to carry for one so young although the owner's son claims a handy five pounds - on balance 3/1 doesn't represent value and if things get tight at the business end, I'd be concerned a proper jock would gain the uppper hand, so I'm looking elsewhere. Great Endeavour is progressive and has a racing weight together with every chance although Tom Scudamore's column in Thursday's Times failed to mention this one by name; whatever happens here, the trainer tells us David Johnson's grey will have an entry for the Hennessy at the end of the month. Mad Max is a big horse with power to burn who travels up with the pace; several commentators fancy this one - 9/1 at William Hill may appeal to some betting each-way. In an open race, I'll side with Great Endeavour who looks to have the right profile.

In the opener I think Architrave is the best juvenile seen out so far this autumn but the layers tell us Nicky Henderson's French-bred gelding Titan De Sarti is the one to fear. The market has proved a reliable guide in the past decade with the winner coming from the first two in the betting on seven occasions. Two Kisses is a game filly who is likely to find one or two too good but on Racing Post adjusted ratings Zakeeta, another filly, is in with a shout and makes some appeal each-way at around 16/1. Architrave has to give weight to most of this field but I'm going to stick with him until he's beaten - Architrave gets the nod.

The 1.20 is trappy enough. Wayward Prince beat Colin Tizzard's Cannington Brook 11 lengths in a three mile novice hurdle at Aintree last April. The former has since collected a Class 3 novice chase at Huntingdon and is priced up favourite here while the latter is well regarded but didn't jump well in two tries over fences last autumn. Chicago Grey won here in October - Hell's Bay a remote fifth - and is respected but Tizzard will have a rough line through Hell's Bay (finished second behind the impressive Time For Rupert earlier today). I'll chance Cannington Brook's jumping (each-way) provided the layers offer 16/1 or more.

Finally, I've spent no time whatsoever on the 1.55 but I'd be interested in Razor Royale on the back of Twiston-Davies saying the gelding was the biggest threat in his yard to current Gold Cup holder Imperial Commander. This one won at this meeting last year although he had had a warm-up six weeks earlier; 12/1 is the price this evening.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Sam Twiston-Davies made all to take the headlines and the Paddy Power Gold Cup aboard 20/1 chance Little Josh. Timmy Murphy kept selection Great Endeavour (5/1)wide of the field and he certainly had every chance but he fell away three out to finish sixth; Long Run (2/1f) was third.

Architrave (5/1) led at the fourth but went backwards from there and finished tailed off behind the impressive winner Sam Winner (4/1).

Plenty of others had the same idea about Cannington Brook - 16/1 disappeared early morning and he was sent off a 13/2 chance. The gelding made a place in third but there was more than a hint of luck about that as Chicago Grey (5/1) fell at the second last when going to win the race, forcing Beshabar to unseat Christian Williams in the process. The jock suffered two broken arms in the fall.

Razor Royale (10/1) was travelling well enough at the top of the hill but he tired very quickly; I would expect to see improvement for this run.